一、报告题目：

 The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse

二、报告人：

李戎 中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授

三、报告时间：

2018年09月27日 （周四）  下午15:30-17:00

四、报告地点：

知新楼B423

五、报告人简介：

李戎，2009毕业于浙江大学获得理学学士学位，2014年毕业于美国俄亥俄州立大学获得经济学博士学位，同年进入中国人民大学财政金融学院工作至今。李戎教授的研究方向为货币与财政政策、宏观经济学，其研究成果发表于European Economic Review、Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking、《财政研究》等国内外权威经济学期刊，主持国家自然科学基金等多项研究项目，是Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking等期刊的匿名评审人。

六、 报告摘要：

New vehicle sales in the U.S. fell nearly 40 percent during the last recession, causing significant job losses and unprecedented government interventions in the auto industry. This paper explores two potential explanations for this decline: falling home values and falling households' income expectations. First, we establish that declining home values explain only a small portion of the observed reduction in vehicle sales. Using a county-level panel from the episode, we find: (1) A one-dollar fall in home values reduced new vehicle spending by about 0.9 cents; and (2) Falling home values explain approximately 19 percent of the aggregate vehicle spending decline. Next, examining state-level data from 1997-2016, we find: (3) the short-run responses of vehicle consumption to home value changes are larger in the 2005-2011 period relative to other years, but at longer horizons (e.g. 5 years), the responses are similar across the two sub-periods; and (4) the service flow from vehicles, as measured from miles traveled, responds very little to house price shocks. We also detail the sources of the differences between our findings (1) and (2) from existing research. Second, we establish that declining current and expected future income expectations played an important role in the auto market's collapse. We build a permanent income model augmented to include infrequent, repeated car buying. Our calibrated model matches the pre-recession distribution of liquid wealth and distribution of auto vintages and exhibits a large vehicle sales decline in response to a moderate decline in expected permanent income. In response to the decline in permanent income, households delay replacing existing vehicles, allowing them smooth the effects of the income shock without significantly adjusting the service flow from their vehicles. Combining our negative results regarding housing wealth with our positive model-based findings, we interpret the auto market collapse as consistent with existing permanent income based approaches to durable goods consumption (e.g., Leahy and Zeira (2005)).

七、主办单位：

yl7703永利官网